A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
